A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
